IS THE BALKANIZATION OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT PROBABLE?

IS THE BALKANIZATION OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT PROBABLE?

IS THE BALKANIZATION OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT PROBABLE?

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Objective: to determine the possibility and probability of Balkanization of the Ukrainian-Russian inter-societal relations.Methods: the need to study the main factors affecting the state of the modern Russian-Ukrainian conflict in its ethno-political dimension, with the predominat focus on intersocietal relations, determined the use of tg02-0325m the historical-genetic, comparative-historical and typological methods of investigation, integrated with the systemic approach.Results: the main parallels are shown that occur when comparing the ethno-political situation in the Balkans and, above all, the Serbian-Croatian relations, with the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, mainly at the level of relations of Russians and Ukrainians as ethnic groups.The ethno-social and ethno-political differences of the genesis and current state of both conflicts do not provide a sufficient basis for specific predictions about the inevitable Balkanization of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.Scientific novelty: the article proves the inconsistency of unambiguous similes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and inter-ethnic Serbian-Croatian conflict at inter-societal and associated levels; it shows the significant differences of the conflict situations that do not lead to dogmatic conclusions about the development of the Russian-Ukrainian relations by the Yugoslavia scenario.

Practical significance: the main provisions and lt1 corvette engine covers conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and pedagogical activity in the study of ethnos and ethnicity, in the analysis of ethno-political processes in modern Ukraine and consideration of the status and prospects of the development of Russian-Ukrainian relations.

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